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Monday, April 7, 2008

Monday Mendozas

A few thoughts...

I have a military commitment that will have me incommunicado in South Carolina for 9 weeks so this is my last post for a while.

Since Super Tuesday Senator Obama has picked up 69 super delegates, Senator Clinton has lost two (John Lewis switched to Obama, and Eliot Spitzer's resignation eliminated his vote)

Governor Spitzer's resignation has lowered the magic number from 2025 to 2024

Obama's total:1,629 - 395 shy
Clinton's total: 1,486 - 538 shy

There is a total of 934 delegates remaining, 338 of whom are super, which means there are 596 pledged delegates.

Mr. Obama needs 66% of the remaining pledged delegates, or 42% of all delegates

Mrs. Clinton needs 90% of the remaining pledged delegates, or 58% of all delegates.

Here's the thing about all that math, if we're being generous and including the Super Delegates, Mrs. Clinton needs 66% of all the remaining delegates just to break even with Mr. Obama. Pennsylvania has 188 delegates, or 20% of the delegates left. She isn't going to take 66% in PA. If she takes 55% that would be a huge win. Even a big win in PA will make it less likely that she can catch up.

A number of the unpledged Super Delegates have said that they will endorse whoever is ahead at the end of the primary contests, and as we have just shown Mrs. Clinton can not catchup before the convention, ergo Mr. Obama has a lock on the Democratic nomination.

The argument that Mrs. Clinton has more electoral votes than Mr. Obama is a stupid argument. I mean, it's true, but it's a totally meaningless point.

I have it on good authority from staffers inside the Clinton campaign who commented on the condition of anonymity, that there are serious internal discussions about forming a third party and mounting a legitimate 3rd party candidacy. I think it may be too late in the game to call that play, but if she is able to get some big name defectors from both parties it is certainly possible that she could pickup enough votes for her party to be taken seriously. No chance she wins though.