Tuesday, March 25, 2008
3 AM girl supports Obama
Bill Richardson endoreses Obama
si se puede / No you can't
Monday, March 17, 2008
If you will also remember about that night, John Edwards came in second, and earned some delegates that night, some of whom have now been reapportioned. Also, California finally finished counting out their votes and their final totals are in. As always, the updated math is reported first here at AskHodder.com
Obama 1618 Clinton 1479
The magic number still sits at 2025
There are 603 pledged delegates remaining, 957 including super delegates
Number of remaining pledged delegates needed to clinch:
Obama 407, 68%
Clinton 546, 91%
Including Super Delegates
Mrs. Clinton needs 73% of all pledged delgates to be aloted in order to pull even with Mr. Obama, 65% including Super Delegates
Friday, March 14, 2008
Geraldine Ferraro is one of the most respected women in the United States, and rightly so. Before being elected to the US House of Representatives in 1978, Marymount Manhattan College’s most famous alum served as a teacher, and district attorney in New York City. As a member of congress she held several leadership positions, many of which had previously only been held by men. In 1984 Democratic Presidential candidate and Senator Walter Mondale tapped Mrs. Ferraro as his running mate and got a huge boost in the polls, and though the ticket lost big in the Electoral College, the race was closer than the map would indicate. During that campaign Mrs. Ferraro became one of the first people to say publicly (and certainly the first to do so with such a large megaphone) that President Reagan’s strategy of illegally funding and selling weapons to extremist rebel splinter groups and installing monsters as world leaders would come back to haunt us.
Wednesday, March 12, 2008
The new delegate count:
The magic number still sits at 2025
There are 609 pledged delegates remaining, 960 including super delegates
Number of pledged delegates remaining needed to clinch:
Obama 414, 68%
Clinton 545, 90%
Including Super Delegates
Mrs. Clinton needs 72% of all pledged delgates to be aloted in order to pull even with Mr. Obama, 64% including Super Delegates
Monday, March 10, 2008
New delegate math, using last week’s numbers and only making changes based on the Wyoming results:
Clinton total: 1462 + 5 = 1467
Clinton 76% (a 1% increase from last week)
Mississippi votes tomorrow, there are 33 pledged delegates up for grabs. Mississippi also has 7
Friday, March 7, 2008
On Tuesday Senator Clinton won three out of five contests. Bam! She’s smack back in it, right? No. According to John Zogby, going into the Tuesday contests she needed about 62% of all the remaining pledged delegates to catch up to Senator Obama, by my math she took 53% (the actual percentage is likely a little lower because the Texas Caucus results are not in yet). She now needs 65% of the remaining delegates to catch up to her opponent by the convention, so in a way, Mrs. Clinton actually lost some ground Tuesday night, despite picking up 18 delegates. On the positive side for her, she did push back the goal posts on Mr. Obama’s hopes of clinching before the convention.
The magic number to clinch the nomination is 2,025. Including the Texas Caucus, by my math there are 747 pledged delegates left, and if we use the AP numbers, Mr. Obama has 1,567 delegates and would then need 458, or 61% to clinch, and Mrs. Clinton would need 563, or 75%. Sticking with the AP numbers there are 272 non-committed Super Delegates, if included there are then 1019 votes up for grabs and the break down becomes 45% for Mr. Obama to seal the nomination and 55% for Mrs. Clinton. The Super Delegate math is really pretty fuzzy because their support is so fluid it makes them hard to factor them in. I would guess that most of the remaining non-committed will not endorse before the convention, as Al Gore and John Edwards have pledged to do (or not do, depending on how you look at it.) So in the interest of simplicity I will not use the
There are twelve contests left (see chart). Right now it looks like Mr. Obama will win the Texas Caucus, and it is predicted that he will also carry Wyoming and Mississippi. Based on the trends that have been established Mr. Obama should also carry Oregon, Montana, South Dakota, North Carolina, Kentucky and Indiana. Because the contests are now so spaced out, I’m willing to bet that Obama runs the table. Why am I willing to make such a bold statement? Because so far, everywhere he has campaigned, his numbers have gone up, and everywhere Mrs. Clinton has campaigned, her numbers have gone down.
I was an early Clinton supporter, I went to some of her rallies, gave money to her campaign, I voted for her in the Senate, wrote and spoke favorably about her. I was excited to think about having another Clinton in the White House, and even more so at the thought of a woman finally being elected President. But the more I listened to her speak, the deeper I looked at her record, the closer I looked at her specifics, the more hollow her vanilla message rang and I became disenchanted. I am inclined to think that many other people had a somewhat similar experience.
Thursday, March 6, 2008
Party primaries are a PARTY function. The party decides to have them, and how much they matter, period. The Democratic Party decided to have Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada vote in that order, before February 5th. They made it very clear to the other 46 states, D.C., Puerto Rico, Guam, the Virgin Islands, Saipan, and Americans living abroad to set their primaries any time after February 4th but before the convention in August. 48 states, a district, four territories, and block of people living in over 100 different countries were able to follow those rules and schedule their primaries and caucuses accordingly.
Two states decided that they were better than that and scheduled primaries in January. The rules were overwhelmingly clear. The Florida and Michigan primaries are null and void, meaningless. They have no more legitimacy than if I were to organize voting in my basement and ask the party for delegates.
I will agree with Governor Christ that based on its diversity Florida is probably the state that best represents the whole country, or at least top five with California, New York, Oregon and Texas. Although I suspect Mr. Christ was really just trying to get his electorate pissed off at the Democrats as part of a larger effort to be elected Vice President.
I will certainly agree with Governor Granholm that Michigan needs more attention. They have got to be the most economically depressed state in the whole country and they are consistently ignored. Detroit is their best city. P.s. forget Arnold, amend for Jennifer, she is doing a fantastic job in Michigan and would be a brilliant presidential candidate if only she weren’t born in Canada.
Absolutely Florida and Michigan should send delegates to the convention, but they have to have legitimate elections first.