The askhodder community has been asking for my election night predictions, well here you go:
Obama 401
McCain 137
Based on polling I've seen coupled with my own intellectual masturbation I say that Senator Obama takes all of the Kerry states plus: Ohio, West Virginia, Virgina, Indiana, Missouri, Iowa, Georgia, North Carolina, North Dakota, Montana, New Mexico, Nevada, and Colorado, you can see the map I made on paint here.
Most polls have Senator McCain winning Montana, North Dakota, Georgia and West Virgina, but like I said, this is me guessing, but I think they will surprise some people next week.
If you notice on my map I left Kentucky and Mississippi in grey (but put their votes in the McCain column) these are my super sleepers, the polling has them trending McCain, which they probably will, but don't be surprised if they run blue, or if they aren't decided until after next Tuesday night. In other words, I'm calling them this years Ohio and Florida, and while they won't matter in the presidential race, the air tight senate races could spice things up....
ps, look for Alaska to be closer than expected
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
Yup, that just happened
We hear a lot in the news about the illegal warrantless wiretapping, about the government listening in on our private phone calls and such, well apparently they do actually listen to Al Qaeda as well. In so doing, the NSA was able to pick up this juicy nugget, Al Qaeda wants John McCain to win the election, because "a continuation of the Bush policies is best for recruiting". Don't take my word, check my sources....
Monday, October 27, 2008
Ms. U Betcha
Sarah Palin has been getting bad rap in the last few weeks, deservedly so, but I think people's attacks on her have been misguided.
Everyone has sex when they're 17. You're supposed to, it's what that year is for. If you turned 18 or graduated high school a virgin, you were wrong, and I'll bet it wasn't by choice. My point is that could have been you, and if you're going to tell me that Bristol didn't know enough to know a condom is a good idea, you're out of your mind. Moreover, since when is a Presidential candidates view on sex education a front and center, or even relevant issue? Mrs. Palin and President Bush share the same view, and while both Barbara and Jenna's sex lives have been in the news, their fathers stance hasn't been used to discredit him.
While it's true that she hasn't been in public office long, neither has Senator Obama, neither had JFK, Eisenhower, Jackson, Zachery Taylor, Nixon or Teddy Roosevelt (when they became vp), regardless of how you feel about them, they all did some impressive things in office. During the primary Mr. Obama convinced his party that it is judgment rather than experience, that we ought to seek candidates with the highest potential for greatness, and he was right.
Who cares how much her clothes cost? The other three candidates are probably wearing suits that cost a couple thousand dollars a piece, President Clinton has been known to wear $400 neck ties.
The thing is, she has given us so much more to hate about the idea of her being taken seriously, let along voting for her. As governor of Alaska she made a habit of firing people from non political positions to replace them with friends from high school, she has presided over massive corruption, she doesn't believe in science, but she does believe it a God given right to shoot wolves from helicopters. In Sarah Palin's perfect world, when a seven or eight year old little girl, someone Piper's age, is raped and impregnated by her father she should be forced by law to not only pay for a rape kit, but to carry that pregnancy to term.
Focus on things that matter
Everyone has sex when they're 17. You're supposed to, it's what that year is for. If you turned 18 or graduated high school a virgin, you were wrong, and I'll bet it wasn't by choice. My point is that could have been you, and if you're going to tell me that Bristol didn't know enough to know a condom is a good idea, you're out of your mind. Moreover, since when is a Presidential candidates view on sex education a front and center, or even relevant issue? Mrs. Palin and President Bush share the same view, and while both Barbara and Jenna's sex lives have been in the news, their fathers stance hasn't been used to discredit him.
While it's true that she hasn't been in public office long, neither has Senator Obama, neither had JFK, Eisenhower, Jackson, Zachery Taylor, Nixon or Teddy Roosevelt (when they became vp), regardless of how you feel about them, they all did some impressive things in office. During the primary Mr. Obama convinced his party that it is judgment rather than experience, that we ought to seek candidates with the highest potential for greatness, and he was right.
Who cares how much her clothes cost? The other three candidates are probably wearing suits that cost a couple thousand dollars a piece, President Clinton has been known to wear $400 neck ties.
The thing is, she has given us so much more to hate about the idea of her being taken seriously, let along voting for her. As governor of Alaska she made a habit of firing people from non political positions to replace them with friends from high school, she has presided over massive corruption, she doesn't believe in science, but she does believe it a God given right to shoot wolves from helicopters. In Sarah Palin's perfect world, when a seven or eight year old little girl, someone Piper's age, is raped and impregnated by her father she should be forced by law to not only pay for a rape kit, but to carry that pregnancy to term.
Focus on things that matter
Back with a Boom
I'm sorry that it's been so long, we're got a lot to cover so let's just get moving…
People have been talking and asking me about the Bradley effect and how it will impact this election. I was going to write on it, but Nate Silver over at fivethirtyeight.com said it much better than I could in his rebuttal of a garbage piece by Bill Greener at Salon.com.
People have been talking and asking me about the Bradley effect and how it will impact this election. I was going to write on it, but Nate Silver over at fivethirtyeight.com said it much better than I could in his rebuttal of a garbage piece by Bill Greener at Salon.com.
Monday, April 7, 2008
Monday Mendozas
A few thoughts...
I have a military commitment that will have me incommunicado in South Carolina for 9 weeks so this is my last post for a while.
Since Super Tuesday Senator Obama has picked up 69 super delegates, Senator Clinton has lost two (John Lewis switched to Obama, and Eliot Spitzer's resignation eliminated his vote)
Governor Spitzer's resignation has lowered the magic number from 2025 to 2024
Obama's total:1,629 - 395 shy
Clinton's total: 1,486 - 538 shy
There is a total of 934 delegates remaining, 338 of whom are super, which means there are 596 pledged delegates.
Mr. Obama needs 66% of the remaining pledged delegates, or 42% of all delegates
Mrs. Clinton needs 90% of the remaining pledged delegates, or 58% of all delegates.
Here's the thing about all that math, if we're being generous and including the Super Delegates, Mrs. Clinton needs 66% of all the remaining delegates just to break even with Mr. Obama. Pennsylvania has 188 delegates, or 20% of the delegates left. She isn't going to take 66% in PA. If she takes 55% that would be a huge win. Even a big win in PA will make it less likely that she can catch up.
A number of the unpledged Super Delegates have said that they will endorse whoever is ahead at the end of the primary contests, and as we have just shown Mrs. Clinton can not catchup before the convention, ergo Mr. Obama has a lock on the Democratic nomination.
The argument that Mrs. Clinton has more electoral votes than Mr. Obama is a stupid argument. I mean, it's true, but it's a totally meaningless point.
I have it on good authority from staffers inside the Clinton campaign who commented on the condition of anonymity, that there are serious internal discussions about forming a third party and mounting a legitimate 3rd party candidacy. I think it may be too late in the game to call that play, but if she is able to get some big name defectors from both parties it is certainly possible that she could pickup enough votes for her party to be taken seriously. No chance she wins though.
I have a military commitment that will have me incommunicado in South Carolina for 9 weeks so this is my last post for a while.
Since Super Tuesday Senator Obama has picked up 69 super delegates, Senator Clinton has lost two (John Lewis switched to Obama, and Eliot Spitzer's resignation eliminated his vote)
Governor Spitzer's resignation has lowered the magic number from 2025 to 2024
Obama's total:1,629 - 395 shy
Clinton's total: 1,486 - 538 shy
There is a total of 934 delegates remaining, 338 of whom are super, which means there are 596 pledged delegates.
Mr. Obama needs 66% of the remaining pledged delegates, or 42% of all delegates
Mrs. Clinton needs 90% of the remaining pledged delegates, or 58% of all delegates.
Here's the thing about all that math, if we're being generous and including the Super Delegates, Mrs. Clinton needs 66% of all the remaining delegates just to break even with Mr. Obama. Pennsylvania has 188 delegates, or 20% of the delegates left. She isn't going to take 66% in PA. If she takes 55% that would be a huge win. Even a big win in PA will make it less likely that she can catch up.
A number of the unpledged Super Delegates have said that they will endorse whoever is ahead at the end of the primary contests, and as we have just shown Mrs. Clinton can not catchup before the convention, ergo Mr. Obama has a lock on the Democratic nomination.
The argument that Mrs. Clinton has more electoral votes than Mr. Obama is a stupid argument. I mean, it's true, but it's a totally meaningless point.
I have it on good authority from staffers inside the Clinton campaign who commented on the condition of anonymity, that there are serious internal discussions about forming a third party and mounting a legitimate 3rd party candidacy. I think it may be too late in the game to call that play, but if she is able to get some big name defectors from both parties it is certainly possible that she could pickup enough votes for her party to be taken seriously. No chance she wins though.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)