Jason Jones hit the nail square on the head

I actually wrote this post over a week ago, but after a certain segment on “A Daily Show” I knew I had to rewrite it. Jon Stewart asked Jason Jones why the Romney campaign never really caught fire despite limitless funding, good presidential looks, a beautiful family, economic experience etc. Jones responded that “the Mitt Romney campaign was never quite able to get over the fact that Mitt Romney, is a douche bag.” Quite possibly the best political analysis I’ve ever heard.
Romney might not wear a wool hat during the summer or t-shirts with stupid sayings, he isn’t leaching off his girlfriend until his band takes off, he isn’t a security guard with a blog or living in his parent’s basement. Romney isn’t Nick Lachey or Ryan Phillipe and as far as I know he doesn’t own a Segway scooter or wear wide leather strap bracelets, and he doesn’t even smell like a summer mist, but Mitt Romney is a douche bag in that he represents everything people hate about politicians. He is an inauthentic, super polished, over privileged, mud slinging, groveling panderer, and he treats people like they’re stupid. Granted so do most politicians, but Romney is just much more blatant about it.
Mitt Romney grew up a child of privilege, never wanting or having to work for a thing in his life, but he tucks his polo shirt into his jeans, sinches his belt, throws on a brand-new Carhartt jacket and acts like he knows what it’s like to do hard labor. When he ran for office in Massachusetts he swore up and down that he was pro-choice, a position he reversed to run for President and his answer on the flip flop was that “I said I was pro-choice, but every time I had the opportunity, I came down on the side of life” and I’m sure someone on his staff thought this was a brilliant answer. It’s not. Instead it begs the question, were you lying then or are you lying now? but the answer is one of those two.
When Hilary was doing well talking about experience, Romney talked about experience, when Obama’s message of change and the need to fix a corrupt Washington system started to take off, Romney talked about the need for change, when McCain pulled ahead in the polls as the best person to handle the wars, Mitt Romney parroted McCain’s position. He never talked about new ideas, only why other people’s plans were stupid, his campaign never even put forth an original thought. When a reporter asked him if he supported the war so much, why his sons weren’t serving, he replied that they were serving in a different fashion, that they felt the best way they could honor America was to get him elected President.
Romney did look good on paper, but in substance, he’s a douche bag and that’s why whenever he would show up in a state the other guy would start winning. He only won three primaries, and they were all states he claimed to be from (Utah, Massachusetts, and Michigan). People aren’t stupid Mitt, and they proved it by voting you out.

The Iowa caucus

Senator Obama has opened an impressive lead in the state wide Iowa polls, and though the Clinton campaign is sinking quickly she has somehow managed to hold onto second place with Mr. Edwards consistently showing up in third, just ahead of Governor Richardson. Don’t believe the hype. Former Senator John Edwards will win the Iowa caucus on Thursday. Anyone who says otherwise doesn’t know what they’re talking about.

In order to understand what I’m saying you have to first understand what a caucus is and how it differs from a primary. In a primary the states votes like in any election and the candidates are ranked from first to last by virtue of the number of votes received. In an Iowa Democratic caucus, the candidates are still ranked from first to last, but each county gets one list, and each list is waited equally. Confused? You should be, it’s a stupid system. Let’s look at some mach Results:

New Hampshire primary
1 Sen. Edwards 32%
2 Gov. Richardson 30%
3 Sen. Obama 20%
4 Sen. Biden 10%
5 Sen. Clinton 5%
6 Sen. Dodd 1%
7 Rep. Kucinich 1%
8 Sen. Gravel > 1%

Nevada Primary
1 Gov. Richardson 40%
2 Sen. Edwards 25%
3 Sen. Obama 20%
4 Sen. Biden 10%
5 Sen. Clinton 4%
6 Sen. Dodd 1%
7 Rep. Kucinich 1%
8 Sen. Gravel > 1%
Vs

Polk County Iowa (population 408,888)
1 Obama
2 Richardson
3 Edwards
4 Clinton
5 Biden
6 Dodd
7 Kucinich
8 Gravel



Adams Iowa (population 4,482)
1 Edwards
2 Richardson
3 Obama
4 Biden
5 Dodd
6 Clinton
7 Kucinich
8 Gravel



In primaries the rankings are done by percentage of the vote from the whole state, but in the Iowa caucus it is the percentage of the vote with in the county, then all the county scores are added together, regardless of the number of votes cast, or the county’s population. Think of it like this, eight points for finishing first in a county, seven for second and so on. Using the example above it would be a three way tie for first place if Iowa had only two counties.

Why does this matter? because in the small rural counties like Adams, with 1% the population of Polk county, the individual votes count much more. John Edwards is much more popular than his rivals in the smaller more rural counties so he is likely to clean up there where votes count more, as we see sometimes as much as 100:1, this little quirk in the system skews polling done on a statewide, rather than on a county by county basis. In fact if we look at the example above, it would be entirely possible for Obama and Richardson to have staggeringly higher vote totals than Edwards but still come out tied.

Got all that? I hope so, because it gets more complicated. To this point in our discussion the rules for the Democrats and the Republicans are the same. The major difference between the two is the 15% “legitimacy threshold”. In the Republican caucuses the voters vote by secret ballot and the rankings are done from there. For the Democrats the process is much more open, because, if a candidate fails to get 15% of the vote, their county is considered illegitimate and its votes are not counted. In this likely event, the voters discuss and revote until someone is able to break 15%. Supporters of the bottom tier candidates are wooed by the contenders to switch their votes. Since the voters are intimately familiar with all eight candidates, and their peers are not in a position to offer rewards, those changing their votes will instead vote for their “second favorite”. Statewide, John Edwards consistently rates as Iowa’s second favorite, followed by Bill Richardson and Joe Biden, this will give all three candidates a large boost that is not noted in the polls. It should be noted that John Kerry was in 6th place in some polls going into the caucus four years ago, but was the number one second choice.

You know what the bitch of the whole thing is, only about 120,000 people in each party will actually show up and vote. That’s it, and less if it snows. Less than ¼ of million people, less than 1/100th of the population of LA will take the most important step in determining the 2008 contenders. Mitt Romney figures to finish second or third, he’ll be lucky if he is able to get 15,000 votes, even though he has spent in the neighborhood of 30 million dollars, or about $2000 per vote.

Youtube Debate

Seriously, I don’t know how anyone watching the Republican youtube debate could draw the conclusion that the winner was anyone other than Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee. He absolutely blew his opponents out of the water. He was so impressive that he has surged ahead in every poll, and most importantly to a lead in the Iowa polls. Barring a massive skeleton discovery or the Ron Paul revolution really coming to fruition he should be able to ride this tidal wave to become the Republican nominee.

It wasn’t just how well he preformed - and he was outstanding - but also how poorly everyone else did. As per usual, Duncan Hunter and Tom Tancredo had nothing to add but blatant bitter bigotry. John McCain stayed so embarrassingly on script that his responses were often so far off from the questions that he seemed aloof, which is a great way to present yourself to people who already think you’re too old. Ron Paul did well with the questions he was asked, but he didn’t get much time to talk, and the answers his questions required were generally too esoteric to be memorable. That said, the best burn of night came after McCain was explaining how in touch with the active military he is because he had Thanksgiving in Iraq, and that the troops want to stay and fight, to which Paul, the only Republican candidate who has pledged an immediate and complete troop withdrawal, asked the Senator if that were true, why he (Paul) was leading all candidates in donations from active duty military personal.

Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson didn’t bother to open their mouths unless it was to bash each other (Giuliani did sneak in a couple of valid points, but they were lost in the nit picking). Romney actually tried to degrade Giuliani for having served as mayor rather than a higher office, this was such a dumb idea that most people didn’t think it could possibly be what it was, if Romney thinks making this race about experience is a good idea, he has his head unbelievably far up his own ass. Romney is the least politically experienced candidate running in any party. He is a one term governor, and a largely unsuccessful one at that.

The only reason he was able to win that term in the first place is because Democratic opponent Shannon O’Brien was an inept candidate, and the Green party candidate Jill Stein, was so brilliant that she drew a large percentage of the vote, many of whom were siphoned away from the hapless O’Brien. During his term as governor Romney failed to accomplish any of his proposed legislation, reversed himself on a number of positions, cut funding to schools, slashed teacher salaries, oversaw the only state wide population loss in the country, and spent most of his time fighting for constitutionally mandated discrimination. He was so infuriating to the state as a whole that he opted not to seek a second term, as he knew full well that even an idiot like Shannon O’Brien would kick his ass the second time around.

Mitt Romney doesn’t give a damn about anything other than Mitt Romney. He will tell anybody anything to try and cement a foundation, he’ll lie, reverse positions, cheat, throw mud, make stuff up, beg, borrow, steal, whatever it takes. He doesn’t want to be President to change the world, because he thinks he’s right for the job or because he thinks he has good ideas. Instead, he, like Hilary, wants to be President because he thinks it’s a sweet job, because he wants his picture to go up in elementary school classrooms, and because it’s the only thing he can do to be more impressed when he looks in the mirror. He’s a giant tool, an even bigger douche bag and I have no use for people like that. So, Mitt, please, make this a race about experience, keep making racist comments, please continue to become less and less relevant and don’t let the door hit your ass.

Really?! Really?!

Is she for real? Hilary is really trying to use something Obama wrote in kindergarten against him. Kindergarten. As in five year olds, milk money and magic circle time. Kindergarten. Really Hilary?! Really?! I honestly thought that political tactics couldn’t get any dumber this season than when Mitt Romney tried to make it a race about experience, but here we go!

In Iowa the other day Barack Obama made a comment about how unlike some people he hasn’t wanted to be President his whole life, pretty innocuous, but a jab at Hilary. Rather than let it slide the Clinton camp fired back by producing a note written by five year old Barack Obama saying that when he grows up he wants to be president. Bam! In your face Barack! What’s that Barrack? I can’t hear you from underneath your web of lies! Somebody in Iowa must think they are really clever to come up with something like this, it shows the opponent as a liar, while giving the impression that Hilary has done her homework, a slam dunk ad all over youtube.

Anyone who actually believes that must have their heads further up their own ass than Mitt Romney. It doesn’t make you look thorough, it makes you look sleazy and slimy, and it begs the question how deep did you dig to do your opposition research? How low are you willing to sink to win this? It doesn’t even burn Obama because every five year old wants to be President.

The best thing to do would have been not to respond, but she is starting to lose, so she has to push back. This is problematic because Hilary is running her campaign with smoke and mirrors, which means that when attacked she can’t fire back with substance, because she doesn’t have any to begin with. As a Senator she steadfastly derelict her duties to New York, showing no interest in doing anything other than padding her résumé, and as first lady she fumbled everything that came her way.

She can’t reject the claim either, because everyone knows it’s true, but what she could have done is embrace it. She could have come out, not addressing it directly, but talked about how she has wanted to be President for a long time, but the deck was always stacked against her, and talk about how she had to work twice as hard to get into a great college and seek scholarships to pay for it, juggled family and career to make it when everyone told her she couldn’t. She could have said that she worked too damn hard to get to where she is to be ridiculed for her life’s ambition. Then after that she could even finished it off with a punch line by telling the crowd that when she was in kindergarten she wanted to be a ballerina and tell the laughing audience “I did want to do something else, once”.