43 vs. 44

There has been an awful lot of talk about or 44th President recently.  Here's the thing though, that President hasn't been elected yet, and won't be until 2012 or 2016. Barack Obama is the 43rd President.  Technically, the Obama administration is the 44th administration, but there have been 43 different men to hold the office, not 44.  

Confused? Let's explore history a little bit...

In 1884 New York Governor Grover Cleavland was elected the twenty second President of the United States.  Mr. Cleavland, the first Democrat elected after the Civil War, did so with a broad coalition of bipartisan support on a platform of reform and change.  The second youngest man to hold the office was elected despite his detractors citing his lack of political experience.  Cleavland claimed the office was about judgment, and in his sweeping rhetoric pledged to do what was right and what was hard to defeat corruption, regardless of the political consequences.  Sound familiar?

In December 1887 President Cleavland called on Congress to reduce protective tariffs, due to a budget surplus. This despite advice that he would be giving Republicans an effective issue for the 1888 campaign, he famously replied, "What is the use of being elected or re-elected unless you stand for something?" But Cleveland was defeated in 1888; although he won a larger percentage of the popular vote, Republican candidate Benjamin Harrison, received more electoral votes. 

The inherited surplus was used to grow the federal government, renewing rail, steamship and farm subsidies etc.  The Harrison budgets became the first to surpass a billion dollars during peace time.  Even with the surplus intact, Harrison opted to raise tariffs to a level higher than before Cleavland's cuts.  As a direct result, the cost of everything went up, strangled the economy and forced a deep depression. 

In 1892, Cleveland was back.  A series of retooled regulations and policies with a boot strap emphasis restored the economy.  Though they were largely unpopular.

The parallels of this time to our own are rather striking, but that's not why I tell this story.  Rather, my point is that due to President Harrison splitting the Cleavland terms,  Grover Cleavland is consistently cited as both our 22nd and 24th president, which means that only 43 different people have held the office.  Ergo, the 44th person to hold the office, will be the next administration.  

I have been told that this distinction is akin to the silly 2000 vs 2001 as the true millennium.  Maybe it is, but I don't think so, changing from 19 to 20 was the cool part, not the history of the date.  In this case we are being asked to miscount.  And with much smaller numbers.  I know I'm not the only member of the media with the ability to count to 43 accurately, so let's get it right.  Barack Hussein Obama, our forty third president. 

Link-O-Rama

Dr. Steven Levitt, of Freakanomics fame thinks it's time we allow people to buy and sell organs.  I think he may be onto something...

Joe Posnanski discusses the baseball Hall of Fame and it's members.  He notes that Bert Blyleven threw more shutouts in 1973 than Johan Santana has in his entire career.  It's worth noting that Blyleven threw 25 complete games that year (including 9 shutouts that year ) as part of 325 IP with a 158 ERA+ and finished 7th for the Cy Young (only one out of forty voters put him on their list).  It's easy to scratch our heads and wonder how the voters could be so remiss, and Patrick Sullivan argues that HOF voters ought to look beyond the awards.

John Hodgman has a new book out.  Everyone should read it.  Including you.

Linzette Alvarez reports that military recruiting is up.  If you're thinking of joining, talk to me before you talk to a recruiter. 

Is there life on Mars? KC Jones says maybe.

I've written that Governor Deval Patrick is a phenomenal politician and will be president if chooses to be.  He reminded me why at the state of the state on Thursday.

If this was in Europe, the international community would have had a solution yesterday.

No Room For Mistakes

The following was written by AskHodder contributer Andres Lorenzo Garcia

Police officers put their life on the line everyday. Underpaid, understaffed, overworked. They perform a duty most of us hardly ever think of. It's a hard job, full of stresses, I can only pretend to know, and dangers I can only imagine. Excellence demands that we hold our law enforcement officials to the HIGHEST standards. What happened on New Years Day, not but a week ago, in Oakland California was egregious if not unbelievable, and most certainly unacceptable. 

In our social contract we give the government, the state, the leviathan almost complete dominion over the use of force. We encharge upon it our defense from those who threaten us externally, and from those who covet our goods internally. We deny ourselves the satiating pleasure of inflicting murderous and righteous pain on those who have erred us. We do this out of a sense of justice, consistency, impartiality, and truth. We tell the gods that sit on high, in there marble temples, to adjudicate fairly, and we entrust upon them the will to use force to enact their countenance. 

We give up soooo much to the government, some argue, with much reason, too much. But we do so out of the hope, as blind as it is, that together we as a people will build a better place, than a place of chaos. Lawlessness is not an option. It is through this agreement that our property is not only protected but enhanced. We can trade goods, develop skills, establish meaningful lasting relationships, and THRIVE instead of just surviving. We give up our natural right to inflict pain on our neighbor in exchange for the GOOD LIFE. 

Such is a heavy burden that officers of the LAW and of THE PEACE, must bear with them. They're not mere referees of detached and random laws, but the sentinels of a contract, a belief. The understanding that together we can achieve SO much more than as individuals. We're not wandering in the woods fearful of bears and whatever else may hasten our extinction, but flying through space and splitting the atom. There's is the task of exemplary citizenship. Not just existing in our society, but actively working to maintain and improve it. 

It may be true, and often is, that we do not appreciate those who protect our liberty, adequately. There are soldiers who die without mention, and officers who deter crime without reward. But there's is not a glamorous life. There's is a life of duty, a life of service. They are one of the many pillars of our society, and must act accordingly. 

To murder in cold blood. To exert power without restraint. To act without reason. That is the behavior of animals, and animals we are not. 

Our grief must be tempered with purpose. Our rage must be quenched with justice. Our actions must speak louder than words. We believe in a thing called society. And to those entrusted in the protection of it, there are no room for mistakes. 

My 2008 Hall of Fame Ballot

In the interest of full disclosure and transparency, I am disclosing to you the readers my 2008 ballot for the baseball Hall of Fame. The BBWAA does not require this disclosure (in fact I think they discourage it) but screw that, I've got nothing to hide!

Just so we're clear on the rules:

1. There are 23 players on the ballot, each voter is allowed to vote for 10

2. Any player named on 75% of all ballots cast is elected to the HOF

3. Any player failing to reach a minimum of 5% of the vote is off the ballot forever

4. Everyone with more than 5% and less than 75%, better luck next year

5. If after 15 years on the ballot a player fails to reach the 75% threshold he is removed forever.

The Ballot


Rickey Henderson *
Jim Rice
Andre Dawson
Bert Blyleven
Lee Smith
Jack Morris
Tommy John
Tim Raines
Mark McGwire
Alan Trammell
Don Mattingly
Dave Parker
Mark Grace *
Dale Murphy
David Cone *
Harold Baines
Mo Vaughn *
Matt Williams *
Jesse Orosco *
Greg Vaughn *
Ron Gant *
Jay Bell *
Dan Plesac *

* indicates a players first year of eligibility

My votes
1. Rickey Henderson - anyone leaving him off of their ballot has no business voting. The greatest lead off hitter of all time and a member of the all century team is baseball's all time leader in runs and steals, and is second only to Barry Bonds in walks. If you really need more convincing read what Joe Posnanski wrote over at Joe's blog.

2. Bert Blyleven - easily the best pitcher eligible for the HOF but not in, and better than many that are. Guys like Rob Neyer and The Baseball Beat have been all over this for years.

3. Tommy John - His numbers are actually pretty good, and had he not been plagued by injuries he would have easily managed the magic counting stats that have kept him out.

4. Tim Raines - If he had not been relegated to Henderson's shadow he would have been a no brainier last year. I won't regurgitate the arguments, but if you have doubts you should read for yourself.

5. Mark McGwire - I wasn't a big fan of his while he was playing, I always thought he got too much credit because he was so one dimensional, and I never thought he was in the same league as his fellow Bash Brother, Sosa or Jr. and that's because he wasn't. But anyone not willing to vote for him because he embarrassed himself in front of Congress, or because he "cheated" needs to take both hands and get a hold of themselves. Lot's of "cheaters" are in the HOF, the BBWAA is not the moral police, so stop acting like it.

6. Alan Trammell - I go back and fourth on this one, but let's let the debate continue.

7. David Cone - Honestly, right now I'm not convinced that he belongs. However, he was a phenomenal pitcher who retired earlier than he could have and a class act who deserves the respect of not going vote-less, but also, I think maybe the right stat package hasn't been put together and new math may show him more hall worthy down the road.

8. Mo Vaughn - (see Williams)

9. Matt Williams - Neither of these guys have any kind of shot at induction, and really, they don't deserve it. I expect that they will both fail to hit 5% and fall off of the ballot, but they were two of my favorite players and I enjoyed watching them and want to be sure they at least get a couple votes.

10. My tenth spot will go unused, I'm only voting for nine guys.

Yes that's right, I am not voting for Jack Morris, and I am not voting for Jim Rice. Why? because they just weren't good enough. Get over it.

The two biggest points for Morris are that he won more games than anyone in the 80's and he was a big game pitcher. Winning the most games in a decade is trivial, arbitrary and down right meaningless. He had a post season ERA of 3.81, including a hefty 4.87 in LCS, not to mention the 6.57 and 8.44 he had in two rounds with Toronto. Everyone chooses to forget about those series and instead remember the one game he was brilliant. If he gives up a run, or comes out after 9, or even if his line remained the same except it took the Twins another inning or two to score and the bullpen got the win, he's not in this discussion. One game is not enough.

As for Rice, oh boy. We are supposed to ignore the fact that he was one of, if not the, worst fielder in the league. We are supposed to ignore the fact that he is one of the most horrific base runners the game has ever seen. His poor eyesight cut his career short and sped up his decline, so we have to overlook his counting stats not measuring up. We are supposed to believe that he was the most prolific hitter of double play balls, relative to his number of at-bats because of his greatness, because the runners were afraid to steal and cost him an rbi (I've never understood that point). We are also supposed to overlook the fact that he almost never walked and was a bellow average hitter on the road because "those aren't standards that were used at the time". Oh, and only look at his good years, he played 16 seasons (including his 1974 cup of coffee) and was downright awful in 5 of them, so forget those 5 stinkers.

Here's the thing, even if you do all that, he's still not good enough. If you look at stats like ops, which is just about the best of the widely accepted measures of a hitter, Fred Lynn, Dwight Evans and Yaz were all about even with him. What does that mean? It means that without even bringing defense into the equation (and they were all defensive phenoms) Rice was about the fourth best hitting outfielder on his team. Not in baseball, not in the AL or even the AL East, there were three better outfielders, on his team.

Yes OPS was not a common stat when Rice played, and yes that does matter, just not how you might think. What it stands to prove is that Lynn and Evans were a lot better than people think, much better than Rice. If the pitchers were so afraid of Jim Rice, they shouldn't have been, it was the other guys in that lineup they should have been worried about.

That's my ballot. I think Henderson sails and Rice eeks it out and we start all over again next year. That's all on baseball for now

Georgia on my Mind

Senator Saxby Chambliss of Georgia is locked in a tight battle with former state rep Jim Martin, for reelection. Georgians have been voting since last week, new voter turnout is sky-high, and there is an increase of 30% in African American turnout from four years ago. While doing some last minute campaigning and likely feeling nervous about this trend, Mr. Chambliss attended a rally along side Governor Palin where the crowd was chanting “Vote McCain, not Hussein!”, he encouraged his supporters to get to the polls because, wait for it, “the other folks are voting.”

It is said that a true display of intelligence is being able to separate the argument from the arguer, being able to see that reasonable people can disagree and still be friends. I agree with that, I try to subscribe to it and as the possessor of many minority opinions I greatly appreciate when others do the same. That said, the comments of Mr. Chambliss over the weekend were reflective beyond his opinions and would seem to give insight into his judgment and character, making it difficult, and frankly improper, to separate man from the disposition.

Let me put it another way and address the Senator directly: Senator Chambliss, you sir are a douche bag. I hope the people of Georgia repudiate you for using the politics race and fear and Jim Martin whoops your bitter bigoted ass.

You asked for it, you got it

The askhodder community has been asking for my election night predictions, well here you go:

Obama 401
McCain 137

Based on polling I've seen coupled with my own intellectual masturbation I say that Senator Obama takes all of the Kerry states plus: Ohio, West Virginia, Virgina, Indiana, Missouri, Iowa, Georgia, North Carolina, North Dakota, Montana, New Mexico, Nevada, and Colorado, you can see the map I made on paint here.

Most polls have Senator McCain winning Montana, North Dakota, Georgia and West Virgina, but like I said, this is me guessing, but I think they will surprise some people next week.

If you notice on my map I left Kentucky and Mississippi in grey (but put their votes in the McCain column) these are my super sleepers, the polling has them trending McCain, which they probably will, but don't be surprised if they run blue, or if they aren't decided until after next Tuesday night. In other words, I'm calling them this years Ohio and Florida, and while they won't matter in the presidential race, the air tight senate races could spice things up....

ps, look for Alaska to be closer than expected

Yup, that just happened

We hear a lot in the news about the illegal warrantless wiretapping, about the government listening in on our private phone calls and such, well apparently they do actually listen to Al Qaeda as well. In so doing, the NSA was able to pick up this juicy nugget, Al Qaeda wants John McCain to win the election, because "a continuation of the Bush policies is best for recruiting". Don't take my word, check my sources....

Ms. U Betcha

Sarah Palin has been getting bad rap in the last few weeks, deservedly so, but I think people's attacks on her have been misguided.

Everyone has sex when they're 17. You're supposed to, it's what that year is for. If you turned 18 or graduated high school a virgin, you were wrong, and I'll bet it wasn't by choice. My point is that could have been you, and if you're going to tell me that Bristol didn't know enough to know a condom is a good idea, you're out of your mind. Moreover, since when is a Presidential candidates view on sex education a front and center, or even relevant issue? Mrs. Palin and President Bush share the same view, and while both Barbara and Jenna's sex lives have been in the news, their fathers stance hasn't been used to discredit him.

While it's true that she hasn't been in public office long, neither has Senator Obama, neither had JFK, Eisenhower, Jackson, Zachery Taylor, Nixon or Teddy Roosevelt (when they became vp), regardless of how you feel about them, they all did some impressive things in office. During the primary Mr. Obama convinced his party that it is judgment rather than experience, that we ought to seek candidates with the highest potential for greatness, and he was right.

Who cares how much her clothes cost? The other three candidates are probably wearing suits that cost a couple thousand dollars a piece, President Clinton has been known to wear $400 neck ties.

The thing is, she has given us so much more to hate about the idea of her being taken seriously, let along voting for her. As governor of Alaska she made a habit of firing people from non political positions to replace them with friends from high school, she has presided over massive corruption, she doesn't believe in science, but she does believe it a God given right to shoot wolves from helicopters. In Sarah Palin's perfect world, when a seven or eight year old little girl, someone Piper's age, is raped and impregnated by her father she should be forced by law to not only pay for a rape kit, but to carry that pregnancy to term.

Focus on things that matter

Back with a Boom

I'm sorry that it's been so long, we're got a lot to cover so let's just get moving…

People have been talking and asking me about the Bradley effect and how it will impact this election. I was going to write on it, but Nate Silver over at fivethirtyeight.com said it much better than I could in his rebuttal of a garbage piece by Bill Greener at Salon.com.

Monday Mendozas

A few thoughts...

I have a military commitment that will have me incommunicado in South Carolina for 9 weeks so this is my last post for a while.

Since Super Tuesday Senator Obama has picked up 69 super delegates, Senator Clinton has lost two (John Lewis switched to Obama, and Eliot Spitzer's resignation eliminated his vote)


Governor Spitzer's resignation has lowered the magic number from 2025 to 2024

Obama's total:1,629 - 395 shy
Clinton's total: 1,486 - 538 shy

There is a total of 934 delegates remaining, 338 of whom are super, which means there are 596 pledged delegates.

Mr. Obama needs 66% of the remaining pledged delegates, or 42% of all delegates

Mrs. Clinton needs 90% of the remaining pledged delegates, or 58% of all delegates.


Here's the thing about all that math, if we're being generous and including the Super Delegates, Mrs. Clinton needs 66% of all the remaining delegates just to break even with Mr. Obama. Pennsylvania has 188 delegates, or 20% of the delegates left. She isn't going to take 66% in PA. If she takes 55% that would be a huge win. Even a big win in PA will make it less likely that she can catch up.

A number of the unpledged Super Delegates have said that they will endorse whoever is ahead at the end of the primary contests, and as we have just shown Mrs. Clinton can not catchup before the convention, ergo Mr. Obama has a lock on the Democratic nomination.



The argument that Mrs. Clinton has more electoral votes than Mr. Obama is a stupid argument. I mean, it's true, but it's a totally meaningless point.


I have it on good authority from staffers inside the Clinton campaign who commented on the condition of anonymity, that there are serious internal discussions about forming a third party and mounting a legitimate 3rd party candidacy. I think it may be too late in the game to call that play, but if she is able to get some big name defectors from both parties it is certainly possible that she could pickup enough votes for her party to be taken seriously. No chance she wins though.

Recent Obama Video that's Worth your Time

A more perfect Union and The Daily Show Response


3 AM girl supports Obama


Bill Richardson endoreses Obama


si se puede / No you can't


Obama Girl


Obama t-shirts

Busted

CBS calling Hilary out for lying

Updated Delegate Math

If you can, try to remember way back to January, back when there were eight Democratic candidates for President. Back in January the all important state of Iowa voted to determine who would be the Democratic candidate for President. Back then people complained that Iowa had to much sway, that it didn't adequately represent America, that it is as diverse as a Mayflower reunion, and that other states ought to have a say. This year the primary season has lasted longer than any other time in recent memory, and as it turns out the other states went with the same guy Iowa did anyway.

If you will also remember about that night, John Edwards came in second, and earned some delegates that night, some of whom have now been reapportioned. Also, California finally finished counting out their votes and their final totals are in. As always, the updated math is reported first here at AskHodder.com



Obama 1618 Clinton 1479

The magic number still sits at 2025

There are 603 pledged delegates remaining, 957 including super delegates

Number of remaining pledged delegates needed to clinch:

Obama 407, 68%
Clinton 546, 91%

Including Super Delegates
Obama 43%
Clinton 57%

Mrs. Clinton needs 73% of all pledged delgates to be aloted in order to pull even with Mr. Obama, 65% including Super Delegates

LEAVE GERALDINE ALONE!!

Geraldine Ferraro is one of the most respected women in the United States, and rightly so. Before being elected to the US House of Representatives in 1978, Marymount Manhattan College’s most famous alum served as a teacher, and district attorney in New York City. As a member of congress she held several leadership positions, many of which had previously only been held by men. In 1984 Democratic Presidential candidate and Senator Walter Mondale tapped Mrs. Ferraro as his running mate and got a huge boost in the polls, and though the ticket lost big in the Electoral College, the race was closer than the map would indicate. During that campaign Mrs. Ferraro became one of the first people to say publicly (and certainly the first to do so with such a large megaphone) that President Reagan’s strategy of illegally funding and selling weapons to extremist rebel splinter groups and installing monsters as world leaders would come back to haunt us.

All that being said, in 1984 was she qualified to be the vice president? Absolutely. The world would be a much better place if the Mondale Ferraro ticket had won the 1984 election. But if she were a man, would she have been on the ticket? I don’t think so, and neither does Mrs. Ferraro who has said that many times publicly.

But so what? Justices Sandra Day O’Connor and Ruth Bader Ginsberg likely would not have been appointed to the Supreme Court if they were men, and they were/have been exceptional in that role. Senator Clinton, though exceedingly brilliant would never have become a serious candidate for even the Senate were she a man. General Powell and Justice Marshall were phenomenal public servants but would not have been appointed to their positions if they were white. Every semester thousands of students make Dean’s List at schools they would not have been admitted to if they were white males. In fact, it happens all the time that people end up in positions with help from their race, sex or gender and excel, even though a more “qualified” person may have been out there. Some might argue that doing so disadvantages white men, but no more so than handicap parking spaces put non-handicapped drivers at a disadvantage.

All too often we look only at past performance when we ought to also be looking at future potential. Maybe Mrs. Ferraro is right and the biggest reason that Senator Obama has made it so far in this campaign is because of the color of his skin. Is there anything wrong with someone saying that? No. Especially not Mrs. Ferraro, so Obama supporters need to get over themselves, cool it with the racial talk and well, LEAVE GERALDINE ALONE!

Post Mississippi Math

Oh my how things have changed. Mississippi is now colored in after Senator Obama's 2-1 victory last night, AskHodder.com is prepared to call the Texas caucus, and there has been some Super Delegate movment (I know I said before that I wasn't counting them, but I meant that I'm not counting the ones who have not yet declared as still up for grabs, so when they do endorse I will still factor them in, it makes them more like a bonus).

The new delegate count:

Obama 1611
Clinton 1480

The magic number still sits at 2025

There are 609 pledged delegates remaining, 960 including super delegates

Number of pledged delegates remaining needed to clinch:

Obama 414, 68%
Clinton 545, 90%

Including Super Delegates

Obama 43%
Clinton 57%

Mrs. Clinton needs 72% of all pledged delgates to be aloted in order to pull even with Mr. Obama, 64% including Super Delegates

Mi-ssi-ssi-ppi

Last night the 20th state to join the Union and the second state to join the Confederacy, a state that held436,631 men women and children in bondage in 1860, a state famous for its river, fried chicken, corn bread, breath taking views, mockingbirds, magnolias, honey bees, Grand Opera House, crawfish, folk dance, and large mouth bass, the home of John Grisham, Thomas Harris, Oprah, Morgan Freeman, Brett Favre, Jerry Rice, Walter Payton, Kermit T. Frog, William Faulkner, B.B. King, James Earl Jones, Elvis Presley, Tennessee Williams and Parker Posey, a state still ravaged by Hurricane Katrina, the one, the only, the Great State of Mississippi, held a presidential primary.

The result? With 99% of precincts reporting, askhodder.com is comfortable calling the state for Senator Barack Obama. Mr. Obama has taken 61% to Senator Clinton's 37%, 19 delegates to 14. Here is a county by county break down with my apologies for the coloring, I had to make the map myself, counties carried by Obama are in blue, Clinton in brown.

By its self, this is likely not that interesting, but let's look at the same map, except we'll color the counties that President Bush won by at least 70% in yellow. If you noticed, the Clinton Campaign won all of them. Now let's take the same map and color the counties that the Kerry Campaign won in green. If you noticed, Mrs. Clinton only took one county carried by Mr. Kerry. See all three of these maps on the same page

What does this tell us? I talked this morning with a couple different Clinton Campaign staffers who argue that it shows she can win over conservative Democrats, and that Republicans are showing up for Mrs. Clinton. I think they are right about the second part, but not for the same reasons they do.

There are a dozen different polls out there that preview head-to-head match ups, in every Obama v McCain, Obama wins by double digits, and in every Clinton v McCain, it's very close, a statistical tie. I've said it before, national polls tell very little about how a presidential election will turn out, I'm not going to argue the merits of those polls, but rather the perception they give people who read them, the wikiality is that if Mr. Obama is the nominee, game over, if Mrs. Clinton is the nominee, game on (this is generally more true among Republicans, Democrats who support Mrs. Clinton think that she can pull it off and ignore those polls).

It's my contention that last night Republicans in Mississippi voted for Senator Clinton to try and give Senator McCain an easier opponent come November. Possibly even taking the advice of Rush Limbaugh and trying to "bloody up Obama ", of the mindset that the longer the primary goes on the better it is for the Republicans.

I don't think it's going to work though. I think that Mr. Obama has a lock on the nomination at this point, and really the longer the primary season goes on the better it is for the Democrats, it keeps them in the news. But also I think Mrs. Clinton's initial strength is part of what has pushed Mr. Obama to be the powerhouse candidate that he has become, the longer she stays in the better for him. With no opponent the McCain campaign has been relegated irrelevant until the Democrats have a nominee, which might just make Mr. McCain irrelevant until August, while people stay excited about the Democrats.

For more on how the race is shaping up, check out my next post on post Mississippi math.

Post Wyoming Update

The Wyoming results are in and Senator Obama has won the state with 61% of the vote compared to Senator Clinton’s 38% and 1% voted uncommitted. Wyoming has twelve pledged delegates, seven of whom will go to Mr. Obama and five to Mrs. Clinton. This is using the AP numbers (CNN only apportioned four delegates to Mrs. Clinton)

New delegate math, using last week’s numbers and only making changes based on the Wyoming results:

Magic number 2,025

Remaining pledged delegates: 735

Obama total: 1567 + 7 = 1574
Clinton total: 1462 + 5 = 1467

Number of reaming pledged delegates needed to clinch the nomination:

Obama 451
Clinton 558

Percentage of reaming pledged delegates needed to clinch the nomination:

Obama 61% (same as last week)
Clinton 76% (a 1% increase from last week)

Mrs. Clinton needs 65% of the remaining pledged delegates to pull even with Mr. Obama

Mississippi votes tomorrow, there are 33 pledged delegates up for grabs. Mississippi also has 7

super delegates, 3 of whom are committed to Mr. Obama, and 4 are uncommitted.

Much Ado about Nothing

On Tuesday Senator Clinton won three out of five contests. Bam! She’s smack back in it, right? No. According to John Zogby, going into the Tuesday contests she needed about 62% of all the remaining pledged delegates to catch up to Senator Obama, by my math she took 53% (the actual percentage is likely a little lower because the Texas Caucus results are not in yet). She now needs 65% of the remaining delegates to catch up to her opponent by the convention, so in a way, Mrs. Clinton actually lost some ground Tuesday night, despite picking up 18 delegates. On the positive side for her, she did push back the goal posts on Mr. Obama’s hopes of clinching before the convention.

The magic number to clinch the nomination is 2,025. Including the Texas Caucus, by my math there are 747 pledged delegates left, and if we use the AP numbers, Mr. Obama has 1,567 delegates and would then need 458, or 61% to clinch, and Mrs. Clinton would need 563, or 75%. Sticking with the AP numbers there are 272 non-committed Super Delegates, if included there are then 1019 votes up for grabs and the break down becomes 45% for Mr. Obama to seal the nomination and 55% for Mrs. Clinton. The Super Delegate math is really pretty fuzzy because their support is so fluid it makes them hard to factor them in. I would guess that most of the remaining non-committed will not endorse before the convention, as Al Gore and John Edwards have pledged to do (or not do, depending on how you look at it.) So in the interest of simplicity I will not use the
Super Delegates.

There are twelve contests left (see chart). Right now it looks like Mr. Obama will win the Texas Caucus, and it is predicted that he will also carry Wyoming and Mississippi. Based on the trends that have been established Mr. Obama should also carry Oregon, Montana, South Dakota, North Carolina, Kentucky and Indiana. Because the contests are now so spaced out, I’m willing to bet that Obama runs the table. Why am I willing to make such a bold statement? Because so far, everywhere he has campaigned, his numbers have gone up, and everywhere Mrs. Clinton has campaigned, her numbers have gone down.

I was an early Clinton supporter, I went to some of her rallies, gave money to her campaign, I voted for her in the Senate, wrote and spoke favorably about her. I was excited to think about having another Clinton in the White House, and even more so at the thought of a woman finally being elected President. But the more I listened to her speak, the deeper I looked at her record, the closer I looked at her specifics, the more hollow her vanilla message rang and I became disenchanted. I am inclined to think that many other people had a somewhat similar experience.

Texas Caucus - ?? 67

Wyoming – 3/8 18

Mississippi – 3/11 40

Pennsylvania – 4/22 188

Indiana – 5/6 84

North Carolina – 5/6 134

West Virginia – 5/13 39

Kentucky – 5/20 60

Oregon – 5/20 65

Montana – 6/3 24

South Dakota – 6/3 23

Puerto Rico – 6/7 63

Florida - ??

Michigan - ??

Michigan and Florida

I am so frigging sick of hearing about how the Democratic Party disenfranchised Michigan and Florida, because that is not what happened at all.

Party primaries are a PARTY function. The party decides to have them, and how much they matter, period. The Democratic Party decided to have Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada vote in that order, before February 5th. They made it very clear to the other 46 states, D.C., Puerto Rico, Guam, the Virgin Islands, Saipan, and Americans living abroad to set their primaries any time after February 4th but before the convention in August. 48 states, a district, four territories, and block of people living in over 100 different countries were able to follow those rules and schedule their primaries and caucuses accordingly.

Two states decided that they were better than that and scheduled primaries in January. The rules were overwhelmingly clear. The Florida and Michigan primaries are null and void, meaningless. They have no more legitimacy than if I were to organize voting in my basement and ask the party for delegates.

I will agree with Governor Christ that based on its diversity Florida is probably the state that best represents the whole country, or at least top five with California, New York, Oregon and Texas. Although I suspect Mr. Christ was really just trying to get his electorate pissed off at the Democrats as part of a larger effort to be elected Vice President.

I will certainly agree with Governor Granholm that Michigan needs more attention. They have got to be the most economically depressed state in the whole country and they are consistently ignored. Detroit is their best city. P.s. forget Arnold, amend for Jennifer, she is doing a fantastic job in Michigan and would be a brilliant presidential candidate if only she weren’t born in Canada.

Absolutely Florida and Michigan should send delegates to the convention, but they have to have legitimate elections first.